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Some fractures were dramatic
and severe:
Observed
Fracture Rates. The figure was constructed by ordering all ships, irrespective
of yard, by date of keel laying. The fracture rate is a moving 100-ship
window measuring the fraction of all the ships within the window that eventually
produced Note the steady rise in the fracture rate prior to February 1943,
and the dramatic decline therafter. Despite uncertainty about the causes
of the fractures, a major research effort funded by the Board generated
numerous important design changes between February and May 1943. The effect
of the design changes was a decline in the fracture rate from thirty percent
for ships with keels laid in February 1943 to about five percent only four
months later.
Fracture
rates varied significantly across yards.
This variation could be accounted for by systematic variations in steel
quality in the mills supplying the yards, an issue that received much attention
in 1943 and 1944. However, steel quality cannot be all the explanation,
because yard differences in fracture rates were clearly related to productivity
differences. This figure plots two available measures of fracture
rates against labor requirements for the first ship built in the eighth
round of the ways. The correlation between productivity and fracture rates
is clearly visible, and is statistically significant at conventional levels.
Moreover, fracture rates exhibited a marked tendency to rise during the
first two years of the program. In fact, the first figure, which pools
data across yards, understates the extent to which fracture rates increased
over time within some of the larger yards. These features of the data strongly
suggest that, even though design and steel quality were contributing factors,
production practices were related to the fracture problems.