Florida should be a cake walk for George W. Bush in the Republican primary. As the brother of popular governor Jeb Bush he has a hugh advantage over his rivals. In fact, the GOP in Florida has redesigned their party convention in October. The party will not hold its traditional straw poll because the other presidential candidate felt that George W. would have unfair advantage instead they are just having a debate.
State Races
Term limits go into affect this year creating a slew of open seats for the state legislature.
State Senate District 37: Incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Westchester) is term limited out. State Rep. Alex Villalobos has already announced and has the blessing of the popular incumbent. Villalobos has raised substantial money and is currently the favored. State Rep. Alex Diaz de la Portilla (R-Westchester) has also hinted that he may entered the race but he has yet to make an offical announcement.
State Senate District 39: Incumbent Roberto Casas (R-Hialeah)
is term limited out and is running for a county commission seat (see below).
Two state representatives Rudy Garcia (R-Hialeah) and Luis Rojas (R-Hialeah)
have both annouced their intention to seek this seat. Another possible
candidate is Hialeah City Commissioner Alex Morales (R-Hialeah) a close
ally of Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez (D-Hialeah). While, Rudy Garcia
is the early favorite this race promises to be a very highly contested
affair.
County Mayor
Next year (2000) Miami-Dade will be holding new elections for county mayor. Current Mayor Alex Penelas remains the most popular politician in Dade County. Most polls show him with an impressive sixty (60) to seventy (70) percent approval rate. However, the overwhelming defeat of his sales tax hike scheme shows some serious vulnerability in the young mayor's political machine. First, this is the third serious defeat for Alex Penelas since winning the mayoral election of 1996. Candidates that he endorsed went down to defeat in Hialeah (1997) and in Miami Beach (1997). Second, an analysis of election data from the sales tax vote show a great deal of dis-satisfaction among Non-Latain White voters (Anglos). The Mayor's decision to join the protesters blocking the McCarthur Causeway in July has eroded Penelas' standing among Anglos. Finally, Penelas remains weak among Black voters, poll data shows that the wounds from the 1996 election when Penelas defeated Afro American Art Teele have not completely healed.
Penelas could receive a serious challenge in his bid for re-election. The most obvious challengers could be County Commissioner Miguel Diaz de la Portilla or Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. Both Diaz de la Portilla and Martinez oppose the sales tax hike.
County Commission:
District 13: Incumbent Commissioner Natacha Milan faces a serious challenge from popular State Senator Roberto Casas (R-Hialeah). Casas who is a close ally of Mayor Martinez is currently favored to take the seat away from Milan who is a Penelas loyalist. Milan has already raised over $180,000 and I predict we raise nearly $750,000 for her re-election bid. This will be one of the hottest races during the current election cycle. Milan bid for re-election received a serious blow this week when it was announced that the county was demanding back taxes on 5000 households in Hialeah. The county claims that residents made improvement to their homes without seeking proper permits, thus avoiding a hike to their tax assessment. The average persons is being asked to pay three year in back taxes on these home improvements (about $300). Milan a close ally of Penelas who currently represents Hialeah is going to have a hard time overcoming this setback.
District 7: Incumbent Commissioner Jimmy Morales remains vulnerable to a serious reelection challenge. His name recognition remains low in his district. Possible challenger include State Rep. Carlos Valdez (R-Miami) and Miami City Commissioner Joe Sanchez. However, both of these are bad matches for this district which include such upscale areas as the Coral Gables, and Pinecrest. Morales should easily win re-election against either of this bid.
City of Miami
Strong Mayor Referendum: The power grab by the city commission to force Mayor Joe Carrollo out of office will be the biggest political story (see this week in politics) of 1999. This was a political coup organized by insiders (lobbyist) and was not a result of a grass roots effort. The Miami Herald has already come out strongly against the referendum and the Chamber is worried about the possibility of a repeat of 1997-8 political instability in the city. This will be a nasty campaign dominated by Carrollo's ability to polarized voters. Commissioners Teele and Regalado will lead the "yes" forces.
District 2: For the first time in recent memory incumbent commissioner
J.L Plummer is facing a serious challenge in Miami Businessman Johnny Winton.
Plummer who was there during all the City hall scandals and is getting
increasingly bad press is in deep trouble. Moreover, Winton has hired Al
Lorenzo as a campaign consultant. This should be a very close election.
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