Cuban Research Institute

Institute for Public Opinion Research
School of Journalism and Mass Communication

Center for Labor Research and Studies

Florida International University

All question texts, references results from data, and other information on this site (c) 2000 Florida International University

Preliminary results, FIU/Cuba Poll -- DO NOT REPORT until 10:45 am edt Thursday October 19, 2000

2000 FIU/Cuba Poll: comparison of three samples: frequency tables

Over the past few years, people have been talking about the possibility of political changes in Cuba. When do you think that major political changes are likely to occur in Cuba? Would you say within one year, in two to five years, in six to ten years, over ten years, or never?

CUBAN

political changes will occur

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 WITHIN ONE YEAR?	86	7.3	9.7	9.7
	2 2 IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	295	25.1	33.1	42.8
	3 3 IN SIX TO TEN YEARS?	105	8.9	11.8	54.6
	4 4 OVER TEN YEARS?	131	11.1	14.7	69.3
	5 5 OR NEVER?	251	21.4	28.2	97.5
	7 7 DON'T CARE /DON'T WANT TO RESPOND	22	1.9	2.5	100.0
	Total	890	75.7	100.0
Missing	6 6 DON'T KNOW	285	24.3
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

political changes will occur: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 WITHIN ONE YEAR?	28	7.0	9.1	9.1
	2 IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	115	28.8	37.5	46.6
	3 IN SIX TO TEN YEARS?	48	12.0	15.6	62.2
	4 OVER TEN YEARS?	51	12.8	16.6	78.8
	5 OR NEVER?	55	13.8	17.9	96.7
	7 DON'T CARE /DON'T WANT TO RESPOND	10	2.5	3.3	100.0
	Total	307	76.8	100.0
Missing	6 DON'T KNOW	93	23.3
Total		400	100.0

national sample

political changes will occur: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 WITHIN ONE YEAR?	12	3.0	3.5	3.5
	2 IN TWO TO FIVE YEARS	120	30.0	35.3	38.8
	3 IN SIX TO TEN YEARS?	95	23.8	27.9	66.8
	4 OVER TEN YEARS?	61	15.3	17.9	84.7
	5 OR NEVER?	41	10.3	12.1	96.8
	7 DON'T CARE /DON'T WANT TO RESPOND	11	2.8	3.2	100.0
	Total	340	85.0	100.0
Missing	6 DON'T KNOW	60	15.0
Total		400	100.0

[IF ON THESE QUESTIONS YOU GET THE RESPONSE "NOT AS LONG AS FIDEL OR RAUL ARE IN POWER" SAY: This question is about Cuba as it is now. Do you favor or oppose...] Over the years, the United States government has often supported different policies toward Cuba. I am going to read you some of the different policies that have been proposed and I would like you to tell me whether you favor or oppose these policies. First, allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba, do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?

CUBAN

U.S. companies sell medicine

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	507	43.1	44.3	44.3
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	249	21.2	21.8	66.1
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	75	6.4	6.6	72.6
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	313	26.6	27.4	100.0
	Total	1144	97.4	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	31	2.6
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

U.S. companies sell medicine: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	231	57.8	59.5	59.5
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	112	28.0	28.9	88.4
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	14	3.5	3.6	92.0
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	31	7.8	8.0	100.0
	Total	388	97.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	12	3.0
Total		400	100.0

national sample

U.S. companies sell medicine: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	148	37.0	38.4	38.4
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	198	49.5	51.4	89.9
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	18	4.5	4.7	94.5
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	21	5.3	5.5	100.0
	Total	385	96.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	15	3.8
Total		400	100.0

Allowing U.S. companies to sell food to Cuba. [..Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?]

Cuban sample

Q3 U.S. companies sell food

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	438	37.3	38.4	38.4
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	204	17.4	17.9	56.3
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	101	8.6	8.9	65.2
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	397	33.8	34.8	100.0
	Total	1140	97.0	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	35	3.0
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

U.S. companies sell food: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	219	54.8	56.9	56.9
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	101	25.3	26.2	83.1
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	26	6.5	6.8	89.9
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	39	9.8	10.1	100.0
	Total	385	96.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	15	3.8
Total		400	100.0

national sample

U.S. companies sell food: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	154	38.5	39.7	39.7
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	181	45.3	46.6	86.3
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	27	6.8	7.0	93.3
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	26	6.5	6.7	100.0
	Total	388	97.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	12	3.0
Total		400	100.0

Supporting direct U.S. military action to overthrow the Cuban government. [...Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?]

Cuban sample

Q4 direct U.S. military action

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	540	46.0	49.4	49.4
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	120	10.2	11.0	60.4
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	109	9.3	10.0	70.4
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	324	27.6	29.6	100.0
	Total	1093	93.0	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	82	7.0
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

direct U.S. military action: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	95	23.8	26.0	26.0
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	51	12.8	13.9	39.9
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	59	14.8	16.1	56.0
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	161	40.3	44.0	100.0
	Total	366	91.5	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	34	8.5
Total		400	100.0

national sample

direct U.S. military action: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	30	7.5	8.1	8.1
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	36	9.0	9.8	17.9
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	107	26.8	29.0	46.9
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	196	49.0	53.1	100.0
	Total	369	92.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	31	7.8
Total		400	100.0

Supporting military action by the exile community to overthrow the Cuban Government. [...Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?]

Cuban sample

Q5 Support military action by exiles

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	607	51.7	55.5	55.5
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	148	12.6	13.5	69.0
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	105	8.9	9.6	78.6
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	234	19.9	21.4	100.0
	Total	1094	93.1	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	81	6.9
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

Support military action by exiles: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	100	25.0	27.6	27.6
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	64	16.0	17.7	45.3
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	66	16.5	18.2	63.5
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	132	33.0	36.5	100.0
	Total	362	90.5	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	38	9.5
Total		400	100.0

national sample

Support military action by exiles: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	20	5.0	5.8	5.8
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	55	13.8	16.0	21.8
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	103	25.8	29.9	51.7
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	166	41.5	48.3	100.0
	Total	344	86.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	56	14.0
Total		400	100.0

Supporting human rights groups inside Cuba. [...Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?]

Cuban sample

Q6 human rights groups inside Cuba

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	904	76.9	79.9	79.9
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	166	14.1	14.7	94.6
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	21	1.8	1.9	96.5
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	40	3.4	3.5	100.0
	Total	1131	96.3	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	44	3.7
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

human rights groups inside Cuba: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	252	63.0	66.5	66.5
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	98	24.5	25.9	92.3
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	10	2.5	2.6	95.0
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	19	4.8	5.0	100.0
	Total	379	94.8	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	21	5.3
Total		400	100.0

national sample

human rights groups inside Cuba: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	164	41.0	43.6	43.6
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	150	37.5	39.9	83.5
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	42	10.5	11.2	94.7
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	20	5.0	5.3	100.0
	Total	376	94.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	24	6.0
Total		400	100.0

Establishing a national dialogue among Cuban exiles, Cuban dissidents, and representatives of the Cuban government. [...Do you strongly favor, mostly favor, mostly oppose, or strongly oppose this?]

Cuban sample

Q7 national dialogue

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY FAVOR	368	31.3	34.4	34.4
	2 2 MOSTLY FAVOR	184	15.7	17.2	51.6
	3 3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	126	10.7	11.8	63.4
	4 4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	391	33.3	36.6	100.0
	Total	1069	91.0	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	106	9.0
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

national dialogue: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	169	42.3	49.0	49.0
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	102	25.5	29.6	78.6
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	30	7.5	8.7	87.2
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	44	11.0	12.8	100.0
	Total	345	86.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	55	13.8
Total		400	100.0

national sample

national dialogue: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY FAVOR	98	24.5	29.3	29.3
	2 MOSTLY FAVOR	170	42.5	50.9	80.2
	3 MOSTLY OPPOSE	40	10.0	12.0	92.2
	4 STRONGLY OPPOSE	26	6.5	7.8	100.0
	Total	334	83.5	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	66	16.5
Total		400	100.0

Prohibiting U.S companies from doing business with Cuba. [...Do you Strongly approve, mostly approve, mostly disapprove, or strongly disapprove?]

Cuban sample

Q8 US ban on business

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 STRONGLY APPROVE	415	35.3	37.1	37.1
	2 2 MOSTLY APPROVE	117	10.0	10.5	47.6
	3 3 MOSTLY DISAPPROVE	138	11.7	12.3	59.9
	4 4 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	448	38.1	40.1	100.0
	Total	1118	95.1	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	57	4.9
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

US ban on business: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY APPROVE	88	22.0	23.5	23.5
	2 MOSTLY APPROVE	55	13.8	14.7	38.1
	3 MOSTLY DISAPPROVE	93	23.3	24.8	62.9
	4 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	139	34.8	37.1	100.0
	Total	375	93.8	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	25	6.3
Total		400	100.0

national sample

US ban on business: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 STRONGLY APPROVE	46	11.5	12.4	12.4
	2 MOSTLY APPROVE	83	20.8	22.4	34.9
	3 MOSTLY DISAPPROVE	123	30.8	33.2	68.1
	4 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE	118	29.5	31.9	100.0
	Total	370	92.5	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	30	7.5
Total		400	100.0

Overall, do you think the U.S. embargo of Cuba has worked very well, well, not very well, or not at all?

Cuban sample

Q9 US embargo works

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 VERY WELL	94	8.0	8.4	8.4
	2 2 WELL	193	16.4	17.3	25.7
	3 3 NOT VERY WELL	373	31.7	33.4	59.1
	4 4 NOT AT ALL	457	38.9	40.9	100.0
	Total	1117	95.1	100.0
Missing	5 5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	58	4.9
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

US embargo works: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 VERY WELL	16	4.0	4.5	4.5
	2 WELL	48	12.0	13.4	17.9
	3 NOT VERY WELL	153	38.3	42.9	60.8
	4 NOT AT ALL	140	35.0	39.2	100.0
	Total	357	89.3	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	43	10.8
Total		400	100.0

national sample

US embargo works: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 VERY WELL	13	3.3	3.7	3.7
	2 WELL	106	26.5	30.5	34.2
	3 NOT VERY WELL	153	38.3	44.0	78.2
	4 NOT AT ALL	76	19.0	21.8	100.0
	Total	348	87.0	100.0
Missing	5 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	52	13.0
Total		400	100.0

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?

Cuban sample

Q10 support US embargo

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 FAVOR	668	56.9	62.4	62.4
	2 2 OPPOSE	402	34.2	37.6	100.0
	Total	1070	91.1	100.0
Missing	3 3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	105	8.9
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

support US embargo: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 FAVOR	133	33.3	39.1	39.1
	2 OPPOSE	207	51.8	60.9	100.0
	Total	340	85.0	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	60	15.0
Total		400	100.0

national sample

support US embargo: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 FAVOR	142	35.5	42.6	42.6
	2 OPPOSE	191	47.8	57.4	100.0
	Total	333	83.3	100.0
Missing	3 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	67	16.8
Total		400	100.0

Immediately after Fidel and Raul Castro leave power, do you think the United States should be very involved in what happens politically in Cuba, somewhat involved, or not involved at all?

Cuban sample

Q11 political involvement after Cuba

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 1 VERY INVOLVED	504	42.9	44.9	44.9
	2 2 SOMEWHAT INVOLVED	376	32.0	33.5	78.4
	3 3 NOT INVOLVED AT ALL	242	20.6	21.6	100.0
	Total	1122	95.5	100.0
Missing	4 4 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	53	4.5
Total		1175	100.0

local non-Cuban sample

political involvement after Cuba: local non-Cuban sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 VERY INVOLVED	101	25.3	26.6	26.6
	2 SOMEWHAT INVOLVED	148	37.0	38.9	65.5
	3 NOT INVOLVED AT ALL	131	32.8	34.5	100.0
	Total	380	95.0	100.0
Missing	4 DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE	20	5.0
Total		400	100.0

national sample

political involvement after Cuba: national sample

		Frequency	Percent	Valid Percent	Cumulative Percent
Valid	1 VERY INVOLVED	76	19.0	19.8	19.8
	2 SOMEWHAT INVOLVED	194	48.5	50.7	70.5