Cuba's economic leaders may be predicting a fourth consecutive year of growth in 1998, but don't tell that to the many Cubans who believe they are worse off today than they were five years ago.

``Public transportation is in chaos, power blackouts are bad again and the goods offered at the farmers markets are fewer and of worse quality, even though prices remain level,'' said Havana economist Oscar Espinosa.

``If the national economy is improving, the average Cuban is certainly not feeling this in his own life, on the street,'' he added.

Espinosa apparently is not alone. Mexican pollsters reported recently that 76 percent of the Cubans they interviewed said they were economically worse off than five years ago, and only 18 percent felt they were better.

The University of Guadalajara's Center for Public Opinion Studies said the January poll was conducted without Cuban government knowledge and involved only 80 interviews but nevertheless ``showed some tendencies of Cuban opinion.''

Three economies

While polling in Cuba is considered risky because of official limits on dissent, Havana watchers say the Mexicans' results underline the gap between the three ``economies'' that have developed since Cuba went into a tailspin after losing Soviet subsidies.

There's the official one that involves large-scale enterprises such as tourism and sugar. And there are two unofficial economies, one for the fortunate Cubans who have dollars and another for those who don't.

For now, the official economy appears to be continuing its slow recovery from the collapse of 1989-1993, with Vice President and economic czar Carlos Lage recently predicting a growth of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in 1998.

Despite a likely poor sugar harvest this year, maturing foreign investments in areas such as tourism and mining appear to be returning higher profit margins to the government and improving infrastructure such as the telephone system.

Productivity at state-run enterprises is reported to be slowly nudging upwards, government subsidies to money-losing farms and factories are down and tax collections are up.

Tourism continues to boom, Cuba's oil import bill is likely to fall this year because of low world prices, and officials continue to hold high hopes for the mining and tobacco sectors.

But such ``official'' progress has hardly been felt among average Cubans, for whom the officially reported average salary of 210 pesos per month -- roughly $10 -- still barely covers two weeks' worth of living expenses.

The huge block of workers threatened with unemployment in 1995-1996 -- estimated at 500,000 -- as the overstaffed public sector cut manpower, has now passed into the ranks of the underemployed.

`Making do'

Government figures indicate that a bit more than half of Cuba's 11 million people live on an official peso salary alone and must ``make do'' the rest of the month with odd jobs -- everything from growing some of their own food to filching and selling goods from state enterprises.

``When pork is $1 a pound, one egg costs you two or three pesos and [illegal private] taxis charge five to 10 pesos, you're really eating one good meal a month and walking a lot,'' said primary school teacher Odalys Ferrer.

Life is undoubtedly better for those families that receive dollars, from either relatives abroad, foreign tourists or from goods or services they sell to other Cubans in dollar-denominated prices.

They can shop at farmers markets where food products are more abundant but high-priced, black market depots that sell gasoline at 10 times the official price and state-run stores that sell imported clothes and household goods in dollars.

``A relative in Miami who sends $20 a month saves you from hunger,'' said a University of Havana professor. ``And someone who makes and sells simple clay ashtrays to tourists doesn't have to stand on line.''

Here's a statistical look at Cuba, with data from the United Nations and the CIA:

Population: 11.045 million

Population Growth Rate: .44 (1996 estimate)

Language: Spanish

GDP: $14.57 billion (1997 estimate)

Per capita GDP: 1,324 (1996 estimate)

Inflation: Not applicable; most prices are government-controlled

Unemployment: 6.9 percent 1997. Underemployment estimated at 20-30 percent.

Foreign debt: $10.4 billion to the west as of 1997, plus 21 billion rubles to former Soviet bloc, contracted at one ruble to one U.S. dollar.

U.S. trade with Cuba: Banned by the U.S. embargo

Best growth prospects: Tourism, tobacco, mining

Elections: New National Assembly elected in January. None scheduled for the rest of the year.