At a two-day summit of European Union and Latin American countries that ended here Tuesday, Aznar made no bones of the fact that several Latin American presidents are hinting they may not attend the Havana summit.

Spain -- as the founder of the annual summits of Latin American countries, Spain and Portugal -- has a major interest in averting a failure of the summit.

Spain hopes to increase its political weight within the 15-member European Union by presenting itself as the leader of an Ibero-American community made up of more than 20 nations. For that to happen, it needs the Ibero-American summits -- and a permanent Ibero-American affairs office that will open in Madrid next year -- to become increasingly relevant in regional affairs.

``Spain will work hard to make sure that the summit in Havana is a success, and to seek that the largest number of countries as is possible be there,'' Aznar told reporters here. ``Cuba's responsibility, in turn, is to create the best climate possible for the meeting.''

Nicaraguan President Arnoldo Aleman has already stated that he will not go to Havana, because Cuba has failed to comply with a clause Castro signed in previous summits that commits all signatories to embrace representative democracy, political pluralism and freedom of expression.

Chilean President Eduardo Frei had also hinted he may not go, because of Spain's extradition request of former Chilean strongman Gen. Augusto Pinochet.

Argentine President Carlos S. Menem says he still hasn't made up his mind. Privately, Argentine officials say he is considering not going in solidarity with Chile, and because he has no love for Castro's regime.

Here is where the plot thickens. If Chile and Argentina don't go, several presidents from smaller countries -- including El Salvador and Costa Rica -- may follow their steps.

``It's hard for us to follow Nicaragua's lead,'' one official said, pointing to Nicaragua's status as a small country. ``But if big countries such as Argentina or Chile stay out, it will be much easier.''

Costa Rica's President Miguel Angel Rodriguez confirmed the possibility of a domino effect. Asked in an interview what he would do if Chile and Argentina boycotted the summit, he told me, ``We would have to rethink our position, and others would, too.''

For Castro, the Havana summit would be a coronation of his efforts in recent years to re-insert Cuba into Latin America's diplomatic community. A picture of Castro with more than 20 Latin American presidents with Havana as a backdrop would send the United States and Cuba's domestic opposition a strong message that he has prevailed over efforts to isolate his regime.

What will happen? My guess, at this point in the game, is that Castro will release a few political prisoners shortly before the summit, and most of the hesitating presidents will end up going. And perhaps they should, provided that they also meet with political dissidents, make strong statements for political pluralism in their speeches, and make sure that the Cuban people hear them in prime time on Cuban television.

e-mail: aoppenheimer@herald.com