By JUAN O. TAMAYO
Herald Staff Writer
Just when they thought their lot was improving, Cubans have been hit by renewed electricity and cooking gas shutoffs, gasoline shortages, rising food prices and the return of an old disease.
Though compounded by a heat wave, the multiple misfortunes do not compare to the dire conditions that sparked outbreaks of anti-government violence in the summers of 1993 and 1994, Cubans say.
But they have raised apprehension that the island is headed backward, to another period of belt-tightening for its already weary 11 million people.
``This is not like '93 or '94. Not nearly as bad. But people are worried. We're tired now. We've been at this [economic crisis] a long time and we're almost exhausted,'' one Havana resident said in a telephone interview.
Cuban government officials have been announcing positive economic news since late last year, reports that are doubted by Cuban exiles but accepted by most foreign economists in Havana as broadly dependable.
The economy is predicted to grow 5 percent this year, food production is reported on the increase and the street value of the Cuban currency, the peso, has jumped in the past three weeks.
But even government officials admit such improvements have yet to be felt by consumers. And recent reports point to trouble with Cuba's recovery from the ruin unleashed by the collapse of communism in 1989.
Deputy Planning Minister Jose Gonzalez last week revealed a crisis in the all-important petroleum imports, saying Cuba had already overspent its energy budget by $100 million and predicting a 1996 bill of nearly $1 billion.
Havana officials predicted the government would not sell any more subsidized gasoline to Cubans this year and indicated that fuel shortages were already disturbing preparations for winter crops.
The shortage appeared to hit consumers Monday with rolling power blackouts throughout Havana that came without warning -- similar to what happened in 1993 and 1994 -- unlike the set schedule of power cuts the electric company had followed more recently.
Coupled with an unexplained, all-day cut in natural gas throughout the capital Monday, the shortages forced many Havana residents to cook with charcoal or eat cold food.
``Now we're again worrying about food spoiling in the refrigerator, when we watch television, when we get water,'' one Havana plumber said in a phone interview. ``Nerve-racking, just like the old days.''
Gonzalez said the government had projected prices of $135 per ton for crude oil and $165 for diesel when it drafted its 1996 budget, but real prices now stand at $175 per ton for oil and $206 for diesel.
Cuba appears to have little capacity for paying its growing oil bill. It already faces a sizable foreign trade deficit, and seems to be plugging that gap with income from tourism and remittances from Cubans abroad.
Deputy Tourism Minister Arturo Guzman said 494,000 tourists visited Cuba in the first half of this year, a 46 percent increase over the same period in 1995, while the government's tourism income grew 57 percent.
But food prices in private markets have remained relatively high, despite the positive economic reports and the rising purchasing power of the peso, which rose from 4.76 to 5.26 U.S. cents in the past three weeks.
Radio Rebelde said the cases were reported in the provinces of Havana, Pinar del Rio, Camaguey, Granma and Santiago de Cuba, but gave no specific numbers or indication of the seriousness of the outbreaks.
The first outbreaks were controlled after the government began massive distribution of locally made multivitamin supplements.
The neuropathy cases, together with the energy shortages and a week-old heat wave, have left some Havana residents irritable and somewhat anxious about the future.
``We reached a certain stability this year,'' said a Havana schoolteacher, rattling off consumer-level improvements such as improved food in government-run cafeterias and farmers' markets, more subsidized gasoline on sale and more reliable electricity and gas supplies.
``But now we're back to asking what's going to happen.''
© 1996 The Miami Herald.