Base `new' Cuba conversation on the facts

Published Tuesday, May 11, 1999, in the Miami Herald

JAIME SUCHLICKI

Base `new' Cuba conversation on the facts

Jaime Suchlicki is the Emilio Bacardi Moreau professor of history and international studies and director of the Institute for Cuba and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., [Let's have a new conversation about Cuba, Otherviews, April 26] and other opponents of U. S. policy toward Cuba claim that if the embargo and the travel ban are lifted, the Cuban people will benefit economically; American companies will penetrate and influence the Cuban market; the communist system will begin to crumble, and a transition to a democratic society will be accelerated.

These expectations are based on several incorrect assumptions:

First, Castro and the Cuban leadership are naive and inexperienced and, therefore, will allow tourists and investments from the United States to subvert the revolution and influence internal developments in the island.

Second, Cuba will open up and allow U. S. investments in all sectors of the economy, instead of selecting the companies allowed to trade and invest.

Third, Castro is so interested in close relations with the United States that he is willing to risk what has been uppermost in his mind for 40 years -- total control of power and a legacy of opposition to ``Yankee imperialism'' -- in exchange for economic improvements for his people.

As recently as October 1997, during the Fifth Communist Party Congress, Castro emphasized that, ``We will do what's necessary without renouncing our principles. We don't like capitalism, and we will not abandon our socialist system.'' Castro also reiterated his long-standing anti-American posture, calling for ``military preparedness against imperialist hostility.''

A change in U. S. policy toward Cuba may have different and unintended results. The lifting of the embargo and the travel ban without meaningful and irreversible changes in Cuba will:

Guarantee the continuation of the current totalitarian structures;

Strengthen state enterprises, since money will flow into businesses owned by the Cuban government. Most businesses are owned in Cuba by the state and, in all foreign investments, the Cuban government retains a partnership interest;

Lead to greater repression and control since Castro and the leadership will fear that U. S. influence will subvert the revolution and weaken the Communist Party's hold on the Cuban people;

Delay, instead of accelerate, a transition to democracy in the island;

Allow Castro to borrow from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, etc. Cuba owes billions of dollars to the former Soviet Union, to the European lenders of the Club of Paris and to others. It has refused in the past to acknowledge or pay these debts. New loans will be wasted by Castro's inefficient and wasteful system and will be uncollectible. The reason Castro has been unable to pay back loans and Cubans are suffering economic hardships is not because of the U. S. embargo, but because of Cuba's failed economic system.

Perpetuate the rather extensive control that the military holds over the economy and foster the further development of ``mafia type'' groups that manage and profit from important sectors of the economy, particularly tourism, biotechnology and agriculture.

Negate the basic tenets of U. S. policy in Latin America, which emphasize democracy, human rights and market economies.

Send the wrong message to the enemies of the United States: that a foreign leader can seize U. S. properties without compensation; allow the use of his territory for the introduction of nuclear missiles aimed at the United States; espouse terrorism and anti-U. S. causes throughout the world; and -- eventually -- the United States will ``forget and forgive'' and reward him with tourism, investments and economic aid.

The embargo should be maintained until Castro or a successive regime is willing to provide meaningful concessions in the area of human rights and political change. To lift it now would be to give Castro a gift that he does not deserve.