In passing, he reiterated that communism was the Cubans' immutable destiny, and that if they tried to abandon the ``model state,'' the island could meet the same fate as the Soviet Union.

Two logical deductions may be made from Raúl's declarations. First, that the Comandante's health has worsened. We know he suffered a pair of cerebral-vascular setbacks that left his speech and reasoning half-impaired (which add an element of cruelty to his endless screeds), and that he has high blood pressure and another half-dozen maladies common for a man of 75 years, who has spent a half-century smoking and eating like a newly adopted orphan. Second, that the rumors of unrest in all branches of government are true.

According to accredited diplomats in Cuba, and corroborated by a worried vice-minister traveling through Europe, a very secret trial took place some weeks ago, involving several high-ranking military officials -- three colonels and a general among them, all in the same Tank Brigade -- charged with conspiracy.

SHAKY FUTURE

Raúl has to be nervous. He knows that once his brother dies, the responsibility for maintaining control of the government falls on him, and that he cannot handle it. He is much too sharp and informed to fail to perceive that the entire power structure is rotted to the core. The administrative apparatus, under Carlos Lage and Jose Luis Rodríguez, is on the verge of collapse; built on fabricated figures and chimeric plans and projects to support a theoretical error disproved by over four decades of disastrous experimentation.

The Communist Party is an empty shell. Whatever authority it has left functions on inertia rather than conviction. If tomorrow, some Creole Gorbachev or Yeltsin orders the dissolution of the PCC, it will mirror what occurred in Russia, where 20 million people threw their membership cards down the sewers without a single protest signal.

Meanwhile, in Cuba's Parliament, its hapless president, Ricardo Alarcón, continually parrots the orders of José Ramón Machado Ventura, while swearing that he feels like Lenin's mother. But this sad, decrepit, insignificant circus that meets twice a year for 48 hours only to ratify the Comandante's orders is the nadir the philosopher cited: a knife without leaf or handle.

RAUL'S PLOY

Raúl Castro knows that almost everyone in Cuba wants change, including his daughters, sons-in-law and nephews, but excluding his old, inflexible brother. In the 21st Century, change can only go in one direction: toward democracy and free-market economy; toward the integration of Western financial, scientific and artistic currents. Raúl also realizes that he is neither strong enough to lead the way or brave enough to stop it. So he asks the United States to ``normalize relations,'' to fortify himself when comes his time to bury his brother and start to govern.

But the United States would commit the greatest of follies in accepting Raúl's call. It would communicate the most absurd message, which is: You need not forsake tyranny, ensure the Cuban people's freedom and fall in line with democratic nations to enjoy the advantages of good relations with the United States. The smart move is to do the opposite of what Raúl wants: Insist that there will be no reconciliation until the human rights of all Cubans are respected, and they can vote for any leader without fear.

Castro's death will be the time to offer laurels, and the spur for Cuba to cease being the Marxist-Leninist exception in the West. That destiny comes closer with each day.