Published Thursday, October 31, 1996, in the Miami Herald

Did Cuba inflate storm-damage estimate?

By MABELL DIEPPA
Herald Staff Writer

Suspicion is rising among Western diplomats in Havana that the Cuban government exaggerated its assessment of the damage wreaked by Hurricane Lili, to encourage larger contributions of humanitarian aid from overseas.

That suspicion was strengthened when Cuba's Communist Party newspaper Granma published a long interview last Friday with Vice President Carlos Lage in which he said that Cuba ``will exceed the 5 percent rate of [economic] growth it anticipated for this year.''

Cuba's economy grew 9 percent in 1995, according to government statistics.

``If the [storm] damage were of the magnitude the government has stated, that rate of growth would be practically beyond reach,'' said a Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. ``We believe Cuba exaggerated the magnitude of the destruction, with an eye to replenishing its warehouses.''

Although the government has not provided official figures for the damage caused by Lili Oct. 18, it has announced that it was ``of major proportions.'' Foreign economists in Cuba say the cost might reach $50 million, including heavy damage in the agricultural sector.

In an apparent effort to allay the diplomats' suspicions, Foreign Minister Roberto Robaina took several of them on a 24-hour tour of the provinces of Matanzas, Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Sancti Spiritus last week.

``The images on television were more severe than what we actually saw,'' Uruguayan Ambassador Carlos Barros told The Herald. ``I had expected to find an even worse situation.''

Swedish Ambassador Pierre Friederich said that, although the destruction was noticeable, it did not live up to the description in the official press.

``It certainly wasn't what I had seen on television,'' he said. ``Judging by what I saw, I would say it was a medium-intensity hurricane.'' Anyway, he added, ``in cases of natural disasters, countries tend to ask for more help than they need.''

Copyright © 1996 The Miami Herald