GUATEMALA CITY -- In a remarkable turnaround that will be a blow to U.S. attempts to isolate Cuba, Guatemala -- one of Fidel Castro's oldest, bitterest enemies -- is on the verge of recognizing his government.
Full diplomatic relations will probably be established later this year between the two countries, diplomats and political analysts say, despite the fact that they have been blood enemies since the first days of Castro's rule.
Guatemala helped train and house the Cuban exile army that landed at the Bay of Pigs in 1961, and Castro backed the guerrilla army that just three months ago ceased its four-decade struggle to overthrow the Guatemalan government.
Guatemalan Foreign Minister Eduardo Stein, in an interview with The Herald, said he expects the two countries to open consular offices in each other's capitals ``within a couple of months.''
Stein added that the Guatemalan Cabinet will discuss full diplomatic relations with Cuba, including an exchange of ambassadors, at a series of meetings immediately after Easter.
Exchange predicted
He stopped short of saying that full relations are a sure thing. But observers who have monitored the thaw in the deep-frozen relationship between the two countries since Alvaro Arzu assumed the Guatemalan presidency predict that an exchange of ambassadors will take place by the end of 1997 -- and possibly much sooner.
``It is an absolute certainty,'' said Armando de la Torre, dean of the political science faculty at Francisco Marroquin University, Arzu's former political mentor and now a harsh critic. ``The decision has already been made. All that's left are the public formalities.''
De la Torre, a Cuban American and longtime resident of Guatemala, echoed other critics who claim that the conciliatory new policy toward Cuba is being designed and implemented by a small band of leftist aides around Arzu -- including Stein -- ``who are clinging to the last shred of revolutionary romanticism of their past, rather than any rational interests of Guatemala.''
`Political pragmatism'
``That's Guatemalan political folklore,'' retorted Stein, who said contacts with Havana are driven by ``sheer political pragmatism. . . . It's a pathway for consolidating our democracies in this hemisphere.''
Castro's recognition by Guatemala would be a serious blow to U.S. policy at a time when the Clinton administration is pursuing tougher economic sanctions against Havana.
The State Department, however, has not mounted any serious effort to persuade Arzu to back off. ``We respect Guatemala's right to conduct its relations with whomever it chooses, however it chooses,'' a department spokesman said last week.
But, the spokesman added: ``We do not believe, as a matter of principle, that the sole remaining dictatorship in the hemisphere should be rewarded by upgrading relations absent any democratic change on the island.''
Any rapprochement with Castro from Central America would be startling, given the long hostility on the isthmus toward Havana. Castro's 30-year history of backing communist guerrilla movements in the region, which ended only with the collapse of the Soviet Union, has made him a pariah to governments there.
Panamanian presence
Of the Central American countries, only Panama has an ambassador in Havana. Nicaragua recognized Castro after the Sandinistas took power in 1979, but since they were voted out of office in 1990, the relationship has been in steady decline, with both countries withdrawing their ambassadors.
But no country in Central America has a more hostile diplomatic history with Cuba than Guatemala. The two countries broke relations shortly after Castro came to power, and Guatemala became the training camp for the Bay of Pigs invasion force. Castro promptly returned the favor, arming and training Marxist guerrillas whose rebellion against the Guatemalan government ended only late last year.
Floodgates opened
The thaw between Guatemala City and Havana began last year after Arzu assumed the presidency. He opened a Guatemalan interests section in the Swedish Embassy in Havana and invited Castro to reciprocate. The trickle of informal exchanges that followed -- cultural delegations, doctors and medical technicians, athletic teams and trainers -- soon turned into a flood.
Two of Arzu's own sons visited Havana, one to study, another on business. The Cuban government even opened a branch of La Bodeguita del Medio, the famous Havana restaurant, in Guatemala City. At the end of the year, Arzu invited Castro to the ceremonial signing of a peace agreement with Guatemalan guerrillas, although the Cuban leader decided at the last minute not to attend.
Stein said that enough business contacts have developed between Guatemala and Cuba during the past year that ``even the harshest critics of our foreign policy seem to agree that a consular office is needed in Havana to protect our commercial interests.''
Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald