History may eventually say that Cuban President Fidel Castro deliberately sparked the crisis with Washington to give himself an excuse to dig his trenches a little deeper and spurn calls for political reforms.
History may also say that Castro simply miscalculated when he ordered MiGs to destroy two Brothers to the Rescue planes, believing Washington would not react to the death of four exile aviators it accused of ``provocations.''
But history certainly will record that on the eve of the downing of two unarmed civilian aircraft one year ago on Feb. 24, few would have foreseen the dramatic aftermath:
A brutal freeze in U.S.-Cuba relations. An acrimonious Helms-Burton Act. Increased discontent with Castro. An ugly row between Washington and Europe. An astounding reconciliation between them. And the birth of yet another intractable issue between Cuba and South Florida exiles -- the future of properties confiscated by the revolution from Cubans.
``It was a year that will take a long time to overcome,'' said Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana. ``It was a terrible year.''
It was, in fact, an exceptional year in the long and troubled history of Cuba-U.S. relations.
But the U.S. paralysis goes deeper. The brutality of the MiG attack disheartened many of the until-then growing number of Americans in government and business lobbying to improve relations with Cuba.
``Few people are willing to stick out their neck for Cuba after all this,'' said one U.S. official in Washington. ``Castro did not just shoot down two Cessnas. He shot down moderates in Washington and moderates in Miami.''
Moderates in Havana are also ducking, seeing the shoot-downs as proof that Cuba is again controlled by hard-liners who had taken a back seat to reformers during the worst of the island's economic crisis of 1993-95.
The Cuban Communist Party blasted reformers as ``fifth columnists'' in a scathing report last March. And while fears of a witch hunt never materialized, 1996 saw stepped-up pressures on dissidents and no significant economic reforms.
``Feb. 24 showed no fundamental changes will take place until the U.S. ends its hostility to Cuba and signals it is ready to negotiate,'' said Max Lesnick, a Miami Cuban who closely follows developments in Cuba.
``I spent nine months in Havana looking for places to invest [not threatened by Helms-Burton] and found none,'' said one Canadian banker. ``Everything with potential turned out to have been nationalized.''
But the law also helped Castro fan anti-American sentiments.
``You gave Castro another excuse to play on Cuban nationalism, to blame the Yankees for everything, to dig the trench a little deeper,'' said one Latin American diplomat in Havana. ``You gave him oxygen.''
And Helms-Burton raised the one issue sowing the most poison between Havana and exiles and the most concern among Cubans on the island: possible claims by Cuban-Americans for houses confiscated by the revolution and sold or given to their current occupants.
``We all worry every day whether you in Miami will want the homes back,'' said Havana teacher Norma Fernandez. ``We want change, a reunion of the Cuban family, we want reconciliation. But I fear. Will I lose my home?''
The EU went further, filing a protest before the World Trade Organization. Washington could nullify an adverse ruling by claiming national security interests, but that would weaken a WTO usually supportive of U.S. free trade policies.
``If the United States is in danger because of Cuba, it's for the U.S. to decide. What we cannot accept is that the national security of the United States is endangered by the European Union. I think that's an abuse,'' Hugo Paemen, EU ambassador to Washington, said last week.
But under withering attack for Helms-Burton, Washington offered its allies a deal: It would postpone the most abhorred section of Helms Burton if they stepped up pressures on Cuba for reforms on human rights and democracy.
Spain's new conservative Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar took the lead in forging the new ``choir for democracy'' in Cuba, and the European Union approved a binding ``common policy'' in December linking EU-Cuban ties to Havana's human rights record and political reforms.
``Helms-Burton obviously led to trans-Atlantic tensions and the WTO suit. But in terms of the actual promotion of democracy, it did in fact get . . . the attention of a number of countries that might not have put Cuba on as high a plane on their agenda,'' Stuart Eizenstat, the deputy secretary of commerce who lobbied Europe, said last week.
A broad range of European groups are now pressing Havana to respect human rights, to allow independent journalists, to permit foreign firms to hire and pay Cubans directly instead of through a government agency.
Said Michael Ranneberger, head of the State Department's Cuba Desk: ``Fidel Castro is hearing a more resounding and diverse chorus of voices.''
But after the shoot-downs, several members of that group have said a good many of their brethren have privately concluded that Castro is not the answer but rather the impediment to change.
``People used to believe that we needed an anchor to keep us from drifting into turbulent waters,'' said one Havana physician. ``Now we see that an anchor keeps you from moving, and can even drown you.''
Brothers to the Rescue planes, after a brief break, are again flying in search of balseros, but they are not known to have again dropped leaflets or flown over Havana as they did in 1995 and January of 1996.
U.S. authorities suspended the pilot's license of Brothers' President Jose Basulto, and they watch carefully whenever exile planes or boats leave U.S. shores, to make sure they do not enter Cuban territory.
``The only good to come of all this . . . is that the little airplanes over Havana, have all stopped,'' said one foreign diplomat in Havana. ``At the time, it seemed those kinds of things were pulling us into a far worse confrontation.''
Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald