By Angus MacSwan
MIAMI, Aug 19 (Reuters) - An easing of the U.S. embargo on Cuba would strengthen President Fidel Castro's government rather than help the Cuban people, and the economies of its Caribbean neighbours would also suffer, according to a study released on Wednesday.
``The lifting of the embargo now will be an important psychological victory for Castro. It would be interpreted as a defeat for U.S. policy and as an enforced acceptance of the Castro regime as a permanent neighbour in the Caribbean,'' said the paper by Jaime Suchlicki, professor of international studies at the University of Miami and a long-standing critic of Castro's government.
It was released with Castro due to begin a visit to the Dominican Republic on Thursday, part of a diplomatic offensive on his Caribbean neighbours that has also taken the 72-year-old revolutionary to Jamaica, Barbados and Grenada.
The United States has maintained the embargo since 1962.
While support for the policy remains high in the exile stronghold of Miami, a growing number of U.S. voices ranging from business groups to a distinguished former general say it is counter-productive in trying to bring about change in Cuba.
But the paper said: ``Without major internal reforms in Cuba, the Castro government -- not the Cuban people -- will be the main beneficiary of the lifting of the embargo. While some prosperity may trickle down to the Cuban people, state enterprises will benefit most.''
The Castro government would use its newly-acquired wealth to strengthen its grip and rebuild its military apparatus, Suchlicki said.
Although several Caribbean leaders courted by Castro have recently called for an end to the embargo, Suchlicki warned of problems for their countries should that happen.
``Lifting the embargo would create severe market distortions in the already precarious economies of the Caribbean and Central America ...the impact of tourism diversion toward Cuba would profoundly hurt (their) economies.''
Since the collapse of its patron the Soviet Union in 1992, Cuba has been developing its foreign tourist industry as a main source of foreign exchange.
Some Caribbean countries have cast a wary eye at the new competition in a business that is vital to their economies but co-operation in that field as well as wider integration has been a constant theme in Castro's recent travels.
Suchlicki dismissed the idea that tourism, trade and investment could help hasten the downfall of communism.
``The driving force for capitalism in Russia and China is not trade, investment or tourism but a strong domestic market economy, tolerated by the government and dominated by millions of small entrepreneurs.''
``The will to liberalise the economy does not exist in Cuba,'' he said.
09:28 08-19-98
Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.