Communists gather in Havana

By JUAN O. TAMAYO
Herald Staff Writer

Facing a stalled if not sliding economy, Cuba's ruling Communist Party today opens its first Congress in six years amid signs the session will result in continued political orthodoxy and no major economic reforms.

The gathering in Havana will elect a new Central Committee of about 225 members and a 27-member Political Bureau, the innermost leadership ring of the party whose chief, President Fidel Castro, has ruled Cuba for 38 years.

Abuzz with rumors that it might anoint a successor to the 71-year-old Castro, who has seemed in ill health recently, the Congress has drawn high international media attention to its three days of closed-door sessions.

Castro might step back from day-to-day control of the government and allow his brother Raul, head of the armed forces, or economic czar Carlos Lage to wield more power -- or so says the scuttlebutt in Havana.

But most analysts remain doubtful and say the Congress is more likely to focus on the economy, which has hit rough water again after three years of recovery from the crisis brought by the Soviet Union's collapse.

Worse than expected

Economy Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez warned recently that Cuba this year has seen ``a worsening of [economic] conditions beyond what we expected, reflected in the tensions around the country.''

Power blackouts caused by fuel shortages have grown more frequent, the peso has dropped 17 percent against the U.S. dollar, food has been scarcer even in once well-stocked farmers' markets, and the sugar harvest of 4 million to 4.2 million tons was well below projections of 4.5 million tons.

Hard-liners who insist on communist orthodoxy have already made sure they will have enough support among the more than 1,500 delegates to block any calls for major economic reforms, two party members in Havana said.

Instead, the party seems bent on boosting the economy by increasing the productivity and profitability of Cuban state enterprises while relying on the tourism boom and sugar to bring in hard currency.

Sugar needs overhaul

Rodriguez said Monday the sugar industry will need to undergo ``a major overhaul'' to reduce inefficient mills and increase profits, perhaps by putting greater emphasis on finished products such as rum and animal feed.

``The slogan for the Congress is self-reliance,'' said John Kavulich of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, a New York-based group that keeps tabs on Cuban economic developments.

A Communist Party document used for several months as the basis for cell-level debates in preparation for the Congress makes the party's economic focus clear by devoting nearly half of its 17 pages to the economy.

The party's Granma newspaper reported the document had gained ``wide acceptance'' in the cell discussions, although party members said it was actually heavily criticized for being dogmatic and avoiding current problems.

Hinting at the party's lack of desire for change, the document did not mention the long-discussed legalization of medium- and large-scale private enterprises and had praise for a new type of farm cooperative introduced in 1993, widely considered to be a failure.

`No new reforms'

``The consensus that this is not going to be an exciting Congress shows where Cuba is going -- no new reforms,'' University of Miami professor Dario Moreno said. ``They have survived the economic crisis of 1991-1994. They have done what they needed to do to keep the ship of state afloat. And that's it.''

No doubt the Congress will also have a strong anti-American tone, condemn the string of bombings around Havana between April and September and call for continued support for Castro's revolution.

In the absence of more dramatic events in the Congress, Cuba analysts say they will be watching who will be named to the Central Committee and Politburo for signs of which way the political winds are blowing.

``What's going to be interesting is which people and sectors of society is recognized with promotions to the higher levels of the party, how some reformers fare and how some hard-liners manage,'' Moreno said.

Cuba watchers will be focusing especially on the number of military officers named to the two bodies, speculating that a high number may signal a party attempt to guarantee discipline within its ranks when Castro dies.

Castro succession

``A high number might mean the party is looking at the Castro succession issue as a matter of months rather than years,'' said a European lawyer who represents several firms in Cuba.

On other possible personnel changes, long-running rumblings that Foreign Minister Roberto Robaina and Culture Minister Abel Prieto will get new assignments have gained new currency in recent weeks.

Both were once considered young pragmatists, but Robaina has recently turned toward conservative positions and may now be in for a promotion or at least a lateral move instead of a demotion, a recent Havana visitor said.

The chief of the Cuban diplomatic mission in Washington, Fernando Remirez, may replace Robaina and could himself be replaced by Carlos Fernandez de Cossio, now head of the Foreign Ministry's U.S. and Canada department.

Ascendant diplomat

``Fernandez de Cossio's star is definitely rising,'' said Pam Falk, a professor of international trade and business law at the City University of New York now writing a book on Cuba.

Also being touted for a promotion is Jose Barrios, a conservative who heads the Foreign Ministry department that handles relations with U.S. and Canadian media, cultural groups and other nonofficial groups.

There has also been speculation about demotions for Tourism Ministry Osmani Cienfuegos, ailing party founder Carlos Rafael Rodriguez and Sugar Minister Nelson Torres.

The new Central Committee and Politburo are expected to be in power until 2002 -- party Congresses are supposed to be held every five years, although the last was held in 1991.

At least on paper, the two bodies will be able to make or influence decisions over the next half-decade on economic and political issues that will significantly affect Cuba's future path.

Yet most analysts outside Cuba argue that Castro makes most of those decisions himself after consulting with the Politburo, but with less regard for the balance between hard-liners and reformers within the Central Committee.

Only after Castro dies will the party be able to emerge from under his shadow and try to assume direct control in a nation where it has been the only legal political party for some 30 years, Moreno said.

Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald