If Fidel Castro had indeed died last week as rumored, who would have succeeded the man who has single-handedly governed Cuba for more than half of his 71 years?

Brother Raul Castro? Old-guard hard-liners or young reformers? How about the military officers known as ``Poles'' for their admiration of the Polish army's coup in 1980?

Cuban officials are loath to comment publicly on a succession, aware that Castro's health is a state secret and that speculating on a substitute could mean their swift banishment to the provinces.

Yet recent U.S. and European visitors to the island report that Cubans are increasingly talking about Castro's possible replacement in private and even expressing opinions on who they might favor.

``Even people in the provinces are talking more openly about who might follow Fidel, and most shocking of all, they are taking sides,'' said one U.S. visitor with senior contacts in the Cuban government.

One U.S. official ruefully acknowledged that Washington was caught ``woefully unprepared'' when the rumor of Castro's death swept Miami and Havana on Wednesday. ``We know nothing about what might happen,'' he said.

But experienced Cuba watchers say an educated forecast must put the military and security forces, sometimes known on the island as ``The Uniformed Party,'' at the heart of any post-Castro government.

Castro's younger brother

Defense Minister Raul Castro is sometimes considered the odds-on favorite to succeed his brother Fidel, although at 66 he is only five years younger and is said to suffer from prostate, colon and kidney ailments.

``Raul is not a solution. He's not much younger than Fidel and may not even outlive him,'' said Marifeli Perez-Stable, a Cuban-American professor at the State University of New York who has studied the island's military.

But Raul has forged one of the most professional military machines in the world, experienced in orderly changes of command and chock-full of astute officers who would try mightily to preserve their institution and livelihood in any post-Castro system.

``The Communist Party may split or disappear and Cuba may have several political parties after Castro, but it will certainly have only one army, this one,'' said Perez-Stable.

The `Poles'

Sprinkled among the top officer ranks are the ``Poles,'' who studied and admire the ideas of Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski, said Lissette Bustamante, a Cuban journalist with access to top officers until she defected in 1992.

Jaruzelski's coup in 1980 averted a Soviet invasion of Poland to crush the Solidarity movement -- a key point for Cuban officers worried about a U.S. military intervention in Castro's wake -- and brought stability to the country until 1990, when Jaruzelski gave way to an elected civilian, Lech Walesa.

``The Poles believe the military should avert any sort of popular explosion that could lead to an American intervention, stabilize the situation and then hand over the mess to the politicians,'' Bustamante said.

Speculation about Castro's succession has risen in some quarters with the approach of a Communist Party Congress Oct. 8-10, to elect a new Central Committee whose composition might give some hints on Cuba's future.

But the Central Committee elected at the last Congress in 1991 had little say on Cuba's swing toward economic reforms in 1993 and the retrenchment since then, both personally orchestrated by Castro.

Cuban exiles thought things would change on the island after communism began to collapse in Eastern Europe in 1989, depriving Castro of economic and military support.

``There was euphoria when the Berlin Wall fell, and people were saying `Next Year in Havana.' But now they realize there will be no real changes until Castro is gone,'' said Stewart Lippe, a former analyst for the U.S. government's Radio Marti broadcasts to Cuba.

Cuba experts instead are watching a recent series of intriguing personnel moves and apparent alliances, and the growth of discreet factions within the hierarchy, that may foretell some of Havana's future.

Two apparent comebacks

Two old-guard revolutionaries who fought alongside Fidel Castro in the Sierra Maestra but seemed to fall out of favor in the late 1980s and early 1990s appear to have made comebacks.

Manuel Pineiro, a top intelligence official who slipped out of the public eye after he was dismissed in 1992, reputedly on orders from Raul Castro, has been seen at several functions since April. He is considered a fidelista, loyal to the president rather than any ideology.

And Juan Almeida, author and songwriter pushed into the shadows after a rumored clash with Fidel over the 1989 execution of Gen. Arnaldo Ochoa on treason and drug charges, is now in uniform and a member of Raul's high command.

Also increasingly seen as being aligned with Raul is Eusebio Leal, a historian and moderate who heads the highly profitable corporation in charge of renovations and most businesses in Old Havana.

Powerful figures

Cuba watchers say two other powerful figures could ultimately play lead roles in a post-Castro period: Vice President and economic czar Carlos Lage, 46, and National Assembly President Ricardo Alarcon, 60.

Lage, trained as a physician, has worked near-miracles in pushing company and factory administrators to increase productivity and keep the economy from collapsing without surrendering socialism.

Surrounding Lage is a coterie of relatively younger Cubans, most trained in the sciences, many with some foreign courses under their belts and a history of activism in the Union of Communist Youths.

And Alarcon, a former foreign minister with a reputation as a master negotiator, has tried to give the assembly at least the semblance of democratic debate on legislation even though its members are elected unopposed.
A post-Castro alliance?

Cuba watchers say a post-Castro period is likely to see an alliance of sorts between top figures in the military, the economy and the legislature -- the kind of ``collective leadership'' that followed the deaths of Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union and Mao Zedong in China.

It would be an alliance dedicated to survival, to avoiding a sudden collapse or bloody violence and shoring up Cuba's stability until a peaceful transfer to the next government can be guaranteed.

But no one should expect to see any rifts being aired in public until Castro leaves power, cautioned one Cuban-American businessman who travels often to the island and has good contacts among several factions.

``You have the Raulistas, Guevaristas, Poles, reformers, Jurassics, the orthodox and the God-knows who,'' the businessman said. ``But as long as Fidel is alive, they are all fidelistas.''

Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald