Brian Latell, who served as chief Cuba analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency until several years ago, offered that advice Wednesday as he talked about the Cuban leader at a gathering of Cuba experts on Capitol Hill.
Latell said the next president should not be naive about Castro's intentions.
"He's not going to move an inch," Latell said of Castro, who turns 74 this year. "There will be no free press, and no dissidents will be allowed to run for the National Assembly.
"In his soul, in his core he despises the U.S.," Latell said.
As for the U.S. embargo against Cuba, Latell said Castro would like to see key parts lifted but not if it means making political concessions to the United States.
He said that although Cuba has been weakened significantly since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Castro still retains the option of allowing another mass exodus of boat people as a means of inflicting pain on the United States.
"He can unload another sea borne migration at almost any moment, whenever he decides it is opportune for him," Latell said.
Last week, the State Department took notice after an article in the Communist Party newspaper Granma hinted that a new boat lift was possible in response to Cuban complaints about U.S. immigration policies.
Department officials subsequently warned Cuban diplomats against any such action. Later, Cuban officials in Havana denied that a mass migration was in the works although it is not clear whether the denial was triggered by the U.S. warning.
Some 30,000 Cubans fled the island in 1994, mostly in makeshift rafts. An exodus in 1980 brought more than 125,000 Cubans to U.S. shores, including many who were either violent criminals of suffered from mental illness.
Latell predicted an outbreak of violence in Cuba once Castro dies or is forced from office because of frustrations built up among many in Cuba over the past 41 years.
There is uncertainty over the short-term direction in Cuba once Castro leaves the scene because the question of whether the Cuban armed forces will remain unified is impossible to answer at this point, he said.
Latell also raised the possiblity of Castro achieving martyrdom by dying in a "terrible blaze of violence."
For the United States, Latell said there will be at least one positive outcome in Cuba once the transition takes place: "The obsessive anti-Americanism of Fidel Castro will disappear."
© Copyright 2000 The Associated Press