All question texts, references to and results from data, and other information on this site (c) 2000 Florida International University
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ROLE OF ISSUES
IN MOVING THE FLORIDA VOTE: CHANGES IN VOTERS' OPINIONS ON KEY ISSUES
OVER THE 1999-2000 CAMPAIGN YEAR
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| Data from the FIU/Florida Poll. (c) 1992, 1999, 2000. Florida International University. Current 2000 data are preliminary and and based on 954 interviews completed between October 13 and November 2, 2000. |
The tables here have not changed since being posted before the election. An observation can be made now, however, that the poll results here mirror what happened to ballot initiatives across the country in Tuesday's election. Many exit poll results said the same thing. While the country, like Florida, is still divided between a large group supporting a centrist Democrat agenda and another supporting conservative Republican positions, there has been a shift. More people now support the former on issues like taxes, education, environment, and abortion. Gun control is about the only issue that has gone against this trend.
It appears that efforts to make the election turn on character and personality factors rather than issues were successful. But that should not obscure the fact that there were shifts in opinion on issues as well.
The FIU/Florida Poll is an annual survey of 1,200 Florida residents. It is usually done before the November election to measure issues important to voters and to be able to analyze afterwards the role issues played.
As Florida moves to a vote too close to call that may well decide the national election, we decided to see what the data from the current FIU/Florida Poll say about the issues voters are considering. We look at the positions of Bush, Gore, and undecided voters and how these positions have changed over the year. The data cover October 13 to November 2 of this year and approximately the same period last year. In a few cases a comparative look is taken at the 1992 Clinton vs. Bush election.
In these tables we do not include voters for third party candidates. This is because the numbers of them are so small statistical conclusions cannot be drawn about these voters. Which is not to say that the Nader vote could not have a major effect on the outcome of the election.
It should be noted that this kind of poll is not a good
indication of which candidate is ahead. It is done over a
period of weeks rather than the repeated one-night snapshots of the
tracking polls. In this poll voters are asked about their
presidential choices after answering a long series of questions
about issues. The result is a much higher number of people
who say they are undecided than other types of polls report.
It emphasizes issues because most of its questions are issue
questions. That being said, we believe it gives a good picture
of where voters stand on the issues, and how issues may affect
the election. Since the focus of the poll is on policy issues
we have fewer questions touching on personality and character and they
take more time to analyze, so they are not included here. They
will be included when the complete results of the poll are posted
on the web in a few weeks.
Some commentators have decried the emphasis
on undecided voters in the campaign efforts of both sides.
This does not mean, however, that issues have been unimportant
in this campaign. What it does mean is that the way the issues
have played out left the difference between Bush and Gore less
than the number of undecided voters.
Hugh Gladwin, Director
Role played by issues in moving the race in Florida to a dead heat
What can be seen in the data here is how issues have moved voters
in different ways, to the point where the candidates are only
a few percentage points apart. Some issues (mostly long term economy
issues) moved people toward Gore. Other issues (Cuba, possibly
education) have moved voters toward Bush. Some issues like the environment played a role but were
not much emphasized for most of the campaign. Yet other issues (taxes,
abortion) show increasing polarization between Bush and Gore voters.
How these polarizing issues affect the outcome depends on the numbers of voters
on each side--the data indicate they may help Gore somewhat more than
Bush.
Institute for Public Opinion Research
Florida International University
(305) 919-5778
email: gladwin@fiu.edu
IPOR home page: http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/ipor/
News media may use any of the data, graphics and comments on
this site. Please include a reference to "FIU/Florida Poll" and
"Florida International University" (very brief references in a longer
article need only refer to "Florida International University"). My title is Director
of the Institute for Public Opinion Research. Please send an email to
gladwin@fiu.edu to let me know
that material from this site is being used.
Changes in US health care system
Click here to see results on voter views
on Changes in US health care system.
Education: public schools
Click here to see results on voter views
on public schools.
Need for environmental regulations
Click here to see results on voter views
on need for environmental regulations.
Doing enough to keep the economy growing
Click here to see results on voter views
on doing enough to keep the economy growing.
Long term view of economic prospects
Click here to see results on voter views
on long term view of economic prospects.
Taxes vs. services
Click here to see results on voter views
on taxes vs. services.
Handgun control
Click here to see results on voter views
on handgun control.
Campaign finance reform
Click here to see results on voter views
on campaign finance reform.
US policy toward Cuba
Click here to see results on voter views
on US policy toward Cuba.
Government restricting access to abortion
Click here to see results on voter views
on government restricting access to abortion.
