Summary of results for individual questions
This year marks the thirteenth anniversary of the FIU Cuba Poll. Six times since 1991 FIU researchers from the Center for Labor Research and Studies, the Institute for Public Opinion Research and the Cuban Research Institute have developed a detailed survey instrument for measuring political attitudes of the Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade County. This year, thanks to funding by the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and WTVJ NBC-6, the poll was expanded to include a Broward County sample as well. The poll is specifically designed to measure the attitudes of the Cuban-American community towards US/Cuba policy and how these attitudes have an impact on the South Florida area.
The first Cuba Poll was conducted 13 years ago, in March of 1991. Subsequent polls were conducted in October of 1991, in June of 1993, March of 1995, July of 1997, and September-October of 2000. As in the six previous polls, the researchers this year found a diversity of opinions on the policies that would facilitate political changes on the island. The consistency of some of the responses, as well as shifts in others, present us with the most complete picture to date of the attitudes of Cuban-Americans in South Florida towards Cuba. While most of the responses were consistent with the previous surveys, this survey illustrates the fact that such polls are rarely without some surprises. There are a number of long-standing attitudes that seem to have changed somewhat, while the current political climate generates a quite diverse range of responses from poll respondents. This brief summary presents selected findings from the 2004 Cuba Poll.
Cuban American residents of Miami-Dade and Broward counties are generally concerned about the lack of change on the island but they are far from monolithic in their support for different policies regarding US/Cuba relations. There are major differences of opinion on many issues, and occasionally there is statistically significant variation between responses in the two counties.
· There appears
to be relatively low expectations of imminent change occurring on
the island, reflecting little change in opinion from the last
· Approximately 55.7%
of respondents signal that they would support a dialogue with the
Cuban government (55.4% in Miami-Dade and 60.9% in Broward), up from
51% overall in the 2000
· Although only 25.6% feel that the embargo has worked well (25.9% in Miami-Dade and 22.1% in Broward), the Cuban-American population expressed strong support for its continuation 65.1%. (66.4% in Miami-Dade and 62.5% in Broward). These numbers reflect little change from the last poll.
· When asked
about the specific restrictions imposed by the embargo, the respondents'
opinions appear somewhat more moderate than might be anticipated in light
of the numbers voicing overall support for the embargo. Approximately
49.1% support the prohibition on
· Echoing the
results of the other surveys, the Cuban-American community is willing to
lend support to human rights groups working inside
· There
continues to be support for military action by exile groups, 60.2% (60.5%
in Miami-Dade and 55.9% in Broward), a number down from 69.6% in the
previous poll, as well as backing for a
· A large majority, 74.3%, feels that all points of view on how to deal with Castro are not being heard in Miami, down slightly from 78.9% in 2000. The majority of these respondents feel that the opinions supporting stronger opposition are not being heard (57.3%), whereas a minority believe that it is the views supporting more open relations with Cuba that are not being heard (28.8%).
· Nearly 82%
of the respondents feel that the number of visas currently being given
to Cubans on the island to come to the
· Approximately 49.6% of Cuban-Americans believe that Cubans leave the island primarily to seek political freedom, down from 54% in the 2000 poll, while 26.5% think that the motivations are primarily economic in nature, reflecting no change since the last poll. About 24% indicate that they feel both reasons are equally important factors in the decision to leave the island.
· A majority
of respondents 73.3% report that a political candidate's position on
· Just less than 17% percent would be very likely and 15.3% somewhat likely to return to live on the island if the country's government changed to a democratic form. These numbers represent a decline of 5.6% and 2.2% from 2000, respectively.
There were no surprises associated with the professed electoral preferences
of the community. About 71.9% percent of the respondents are
· In this year's upcoming Presidential election, 56.2 percent of respondents indicate that they are expecting to vote for George W. Bush (58.5% in Miami-Dade and 52.4% in Broward), down from 64% for Bush in 2000, while 18.3 percent will definitely or most likely not cast their vote for Bush (16.4% in Miami-Dade and 21.1% in Broward), up from 15% in 2000. More than 25% indicate that they are undecided regarding the election (25.1% in Miami-Dade and 26.4% in Broward).
· Most
Cubans believe that the next president of
· Contradicting the popular view of a monolithically intolerant community, a slight majority of Cubans (51.7%) disagreed with the idea that musical groups that come from Cuba, such as Los Van Van, should not be allowed to perform in Miami, a number reflecting little change from past polls.